No. 999: Adapting the Landscape? Climate Extremes and Land Use changes
Giulia Tozzi School of Economics & Finance, Queen Mary University London
December 18, 2025
Abstract
This paper investigates whether societies adapt to climate shocks by modifying land
use over time. I develop a hydrometeorological framework that links extreme precipitation
to flooding via antecedent moisture and drainage capacity, and use it to interpret
reduced-form effects of extreme-precipitation years on land-use shares and local economic
activity. Focusing on India from 2001 to 2010, I combine district-year satellite data with
a difference-in-differences event-study design that traces outcomes up to five years after
a shock and constructs model-implied cumulative effects under repeated exposure. I find
no statistically discernible medium-run changes in cropland, forest cover, built-up shares,
or night-time light intensity following extreme-precipitation years. When averaging over
the first four post-shock years, I can rule out shifts larger than about 0.1 residual standard
deviations of within-district variation over time in cropland, built-up areas, and
night-time lights. Overall, these findings indicate rigid spatial adaptation in one of the
world’s most climate-exposed settings.
J.E.L classification codes:
Keywords: Climate Exposure, Climate Adaptation, Land Use, Spatial Adaptation, India.